Foreword ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Part I Going Backward to Move Forward 1
Chapter 1 The Five WS of Emerging Markets 3
Who or What? 4
Where? 7
When? 9
The Most Important Question—Why? 12
But How? 13
Chapter 2 Lions, Tigers, and Dragons, Oh My! 15
Roar of the Tigers 16
To the Brink of Extinction—The Asian Financial Crisis 22
Crisis Causes 26
Lessons and Legacies 33
The Dragon Unleashed 36
The History of China’s Stock Market—A Lesson in Supply and Demand 39
Chapter 3 Latin America and the Vagaries of Boom and Bust 47
The Political Economy of Latin America 48
Till Debt Do Us Part—The 1982 Crisis 53
The Tequila Crisis 67
Chapter 4 From the Rubble of the Iron Curtain to the Legacy of Apartheid 77
The Rubble of the Iron Curtain 78
The Wild, Wild East 81
Crisis Strikes Again—The 1998 Ruble Crisis 88
Putin and the Modern Soviet State 91
The Legacy of Apartheid—Race and Markets 96
Part II Developing an Emerging Markets Strategy 107
Chapter 5 From the Past to Today—How to Approach Emerging Markets 109
Prelude to a Portfolio: Choosing a Benchmark 110
Getting Started: Emerging Markets Today 114
The Best Way to Think about Emerging Markets 120
Putting It Together: The Top-Down Method 122
Top-Down Deconstructed 126
Examples of Quantitative Factor Screenings 127
Chapter 6 Developing Portfolio Drivers 131
The Importance of Portfolio Drivers in Emerging Markets 131
The Proper Perspective 134
Identifying Portfolio Drivers 136
Translating Drivers Into Portfolio Allocation Decisions 145
An Illustration in Analyzing Portfolio Drivers—Brazil During the 2003–2007 Bull Market 146
What Can Drive Emerging Markets as a Category 154
Getting Information to Develop Drivers 160
Chapter 7 Security Analysis 165
Make Your Selection 166
A Five-Step Process 167
Other Important Questions to Ask 175
Chapter 8 Putting It Together 181
Two Initial Considerations 181
Instruments for Investing in Emerging Markets 183
Common Challenges and Risks 193
The Future—Frontier Markets 198
Notes 201
About the Author 213
Index 215
AUSTIN B. FRASER is a research analyst at Fisher Investments with a focus on emerging markets and macroeconomic strategy. Prior to joining the firm, he worked at Cambridge Associates in Washington, D.C., as a research associate. He graduated from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, with a BA in history. Originally from Detroit, Michigan, he now resides in San Francisco.
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