1: Introduction: Scenario Planning - The Oxford Approach
2: Oxford Scenario Planning Approach as social process
3: Scenario Planning as a Knowledge Acquisition and Generation
Process
4: Working with Scenario Planning Learners
5: How Scenario Planning Is Done: The Oxford Scenario Planning
Approach in Action
6: Learning and Teaching: Scenario Planning in Executive
Development
7: Conclusion: An Incomplete Guide to Scenario Planning and the
Beginning of a Conversation
Appendices
Rafael Ramirez is Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme and
has pioneered work in organizational aesthetics; the interactive
design of strategy; and how scenarios work. He was Visiting
Professor of Scenarios and Corporate Strategy at Shell
International 2000-2003 and Chairman of the World Economic Forum's
Global Agenda Council of Strategic Foresight. Rafael holds a PhD
from the Wharton School, speaks Spanish, English and French
fluently, has lived in five
countries, and has worked on scenarios and futures work in some 30
countries since 1980. Angela Wilkinson has contributed to over 100
futures studies and has directed several international
multi-stakeholder scenario planning and foresight initiatives. She
has over 30 years of analytical, managerial and consultancy
experience, including board-level responsibility, honed in a wide
range of organisations and international bodies, spanning the
public and private sector. She is a member of the WEF's Global
Strategic Foresight Community. Angela was Director of Futures
Programmes, Smith School of Enterprise and Environment, and
Director of Futures Research, James Martin Institute,
University of Oxford. She spent nearly a decade in Shell's global
scenario team. She has a Ph.D in Physics.
I applaud your efforts to put scenario planning on a solid academic
footing; the lack of such intellectual grounding is a notable
weakness in this fine art drawn which is mostly drawn from
practice.
*Paul J.H. Schoemaker is an entrepreneur, researcher and speaker
who was a Professor at the University of Chicago and the Wharton
School for many years*
Richard Normann would be proud to see how his ideas concerning
scenario planning have been developed and adapted to present
conditions. In turbulent times, reframing is a necessity, and fixed
framing a threat. The future is a useful fiction indeed, and the
authors show convincingly how to make use of it in knowledgeable
management. This book encourages reflection and experimentation,
and will interest theoreticians as well as practitioners.
*Barbara Czarniawska, Professor of Management Studies, University
of Gothenburg.*
Scenario planning unlocks dynamic ways of thinking and forces
strategists to confront and plan for the unanticipated twists and
turns of the future. Turbulence, uncertainty, and ambiguity in our
world are growing both in terms of amplitude and velocity. Rafael
Ramírez & Angela Wilkinson lay out a usable and rigorous,
structured toolbox to help chart a way forward in these
conditions.
*David Levin, President and CEO of McGraw-Hill Education*
In a post- 9/11/financial crisis/geopolitically turbulent world,
scenario planning has become more central than ever to the
development and execution of successful corporate strategy.
Strategic Reframing is the how to guide to effective use of
scenario planning. I heartily recommend this compelling benchmark
to anyone interested in seizing competitive advantage in an era of
chronic volatility and ever-more rapid change.
*Paul A. Laudicina, Chairman, Global Business Policy Council;
Partner and Chairman Emeritus, A.T. Kearney*
Undoubtedly it is certain to become a well-thumbed fixture on the
bookshelves of serious scenario planners and foresight
practitioners.
*John P Sykes, Green Fields Research*
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